Top Down S&P 500 Target Price, Earnings Forecasts, etc.

 

 

 

(Sources:  Standard and Poor's, Federal Reserve)

 

According to the latest Bloomberg Survey, the median 2013 top-down target price for the S&P 500 is 1750 with an earnings forecast of $109.00, suggesting an implied PER of 16.06x.  Meanwhile, the 2014 target price is 1900 based on an earnings forecast of $115.00 for a PER of 16.52x.  A mild PER expansion scenario despite rising interest rates (10Y bond yield forecast Q4 13 of 2.80% => Q4 14 3.38%.) This would also seem to point to a continued decline in the equity risk premium and a well-behaved inflation picture.

The comparable bottom-up earnings forecasts are $110.57 for 2013 and $122.86 for 2014.

T-Bill Yields (10/11/13):

Although yields centering around (10/17/13) declined on Friday, most yields continued to increase in later maturities.

 

Treasury Yield Curve (10/11/13):

 

 

 

A Few Technical Indicators:

Percentage of NYSE Stocks Trading Above 200D MAV:

Cumulative Advance Decline NYSE Securities:

Cumulative Advance Decline NYSE Equities:

AAII Bullish Investor Sentiment:

AAII Bearish Investor Sentiment:

VIX:

CBOE S&P Implied Correlation (KCJ):

S&P 500 Valuation:

PER:

PBR:

Dividend Yield:

Consensus U.S. Economic Forecasts:

October 2013:

July 2013:

S&P500 Top Down Strategist Forecasts:

S&P 500 Bottom Up Estimates:

S&P 500 Earnings Estimates:

チャート・ポイント：DXY、円ドル為替、10年物国債利回、30年物国債利回

チャート・ポイント：SPX、NYSE Adv-Dec, % Above 200 MAV

コンセンサス予想

MSCIインデックス・パフォーマンス