Friday, June 12, 2009
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Video Update 米国株式市況 6月11日09年
今日は債券、金利、為替、原油、金、コモデイテー、バークレーズ・キャピタル債券指数、30年物米国債入札、（CVX）シェブロン、(SLB)シュランバージエイ、（HAL）ハリバートン、(AKS)エイ・ケイ・スチール、（NUE）ニューコア、その他。
経済データでは：失業保険申請件数、４週移動平均、失業保険継続受給者数、小売売上高、
企業在庫、企業在庫。
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Video Update 米国株式市況 6月10日09年
今日は債券、金利、為替、原油、金、コモデイテー、ロシア外貨準備金、（HD）ホーム・デポ、10年物米国債入札、（DJUA）ダウ公共株指数、その他。
経済データでは：米貿易統計、ベイジュ・ブック。
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
チャート・ポイント： 10年物国債利回りの点検
ここに来てNYマーケットが金利の動向に敏感になってきたので、ちょと長目のチャートを入れておきました。一番上のチャートは１９８０年、１０年債利回りのピークから現在に至るまでです。これを見る限り、長期で見れば10年物米国債利回りが4.00-4.50%あたりまで上昇してもごく正常な感じがします。しかし、問題は現場の米経済状況は正常な状況まで戻っておらず、ここで必要以上に上がってしまうと景気回復の足かせに成りかねないと言うことです。
Video Update 米国株式市況 6月8日09年
今日はＴＡＲＰ資金返済、TARP監督機関、(JPM),ジェイ・ピー・モルガン、（GS）ゴールドマン。サックス、(AXP)アメリカン・エクスプレス、(USB)ユー・エス・バンクコープ、（COF）キャピタル・ワン、（BK）バンク・オブ・ニューヨーク・メロン、（STT）ステート・ストリート・バンク、（BBT）ビ・ビ・アンド・テイ、（KEY）キーコープ、（MS）モルガン・スタンレー、（NTRS）ノーザン・トラスト、（TXN）テキサス・インストラメンツ、(MCHP)マイクロチップ・テクノロジー、など。
経済データでは：卸売在庫
COP ストレス・テストの評価レポート発表
今日はTARP資金返済が話題の注目点でしたが、それとは別にCongressional Oversight Panel(議会が設けたTARPの監査機関)がストレス・テストに関する評価レポートを発表しました。今回のストレス・テストは高く評価していますが、いくつかの問題点を残していると指摘。 まず、最悪のシナリオに使われた失業率は年平均８．９％でしたが、実際には５月で9.4％。このトレンドが通けば想定を上回り、再テストが必要。また、銀行が大量な ｔｏｘｉｃ ａｓｓｅｔｓ（不良資産）を抱える限り、再テストの必要性は残るなどと書かれています。
Congressional Oversight Panel Releases Oversight Report on Stress Tests
Panel finds that stress test models were reasonable, but serious concerns remain
WASHINGTON, D.C.—On June 8, 2009, the Congressional Oversight Panel released its June Oversight Report, “Stress Testing and Shoring Up Bank Capital,” which examines the recent stress tests conducted on America’s 19 largest bank holding companies (BHCs).
In early February, Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board announced an effort to conduct comprehensive and simultaneous reviews of the nation’s largest BHCs—those with more than $100 billion in assets—to determine their ability to remain well capitalized if the recession leads to deeper than expected losses. The effort, called the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP), is referred to more informally as the stress tests. BHCs found to be in need of an additional capital buffer were given six months to raise the necessary capital. By ensuring that America’s largest banks could weather the financial storm, stress testing aimed to restore market confidence and help put the economy back on track.
The Panel’s report examines how effectively Treasury and the Federal Reserve conducted the stress tests, specifically reviewing the government’s economic assumptions, their methods of calculating bank capitalization, their release of information to the public, and whether the stress tests should be repeated in the future. To help make these assessments of the stress tests, the panel engaged two internationally renowned experts in risk analysis, University of California at Berkeley Professors Eric Talley and Johan Walden, to review the stress test methodology.
The Panel finds that, on the whole, the stress tests were based on a solidly designed working model. However, serious concerns remain, and the Panel offers several recommendations for consideration moving forward:
The unemployment rate climbed to 9.4% in May, bringing the average unemployment rate for 2009 to 8.5%. If the monthly rate continues to increase, the 2009 average may exceed the 8.9% assumed under the more adverse scenario, suggesting that the stress tests should be repeated if that occurs.
Stress testing should also be repeated so long as banks continue to hold large amounts of toxic assets on their books.
Between formal tests conducted by the regulators, banks should be required to run internal stress tests and should share the results with regulators.
Regulators should have the ability to use stress tests in the future when they believe that doing so would help to promote a healthy banking system.
This report strives to provide Treasury and the Congress with the necessary context and comparative analysis to understand the possible policy choices. The Panel hopes to assist Congress and Treasury officials in weighing the available options as the nation grapples with the worst financial crisis it has faced since the Great Depression.
The full report can be found at http://cop.senate.gov/documents/cop-060909-report.pdf.
The Congressional Oversight Panel was created to oversee the expenditure of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds authorized by Congress in the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA) and to provide recommendations on regulatory reform.
The Panel members are: Congressman Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), Richard H. Neiman, Superintendent of Banks for the State of New York, Damon Silvers, Associate General Counsel of the AFL-CIO, former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu (R-NH) and Elizabeth Warren, Leo Gottlieb Professor of Law at Harvard Law School.
June 9, 2009
For Immediate Release
Source: Congressional Oversight Panel
COPのヘッド、エリザベス ウオーレン氏のCNBCでのインタビユー。
米財務省 ＴＡＲＰ資金返済のコメント
June 9, 2009
TG-162
Treasury Announces $68 Billion in Expected CPP Repayments
WASHINGTON ・The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced today that 10 of the largest U.S. financial institutions participating in the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) have met the requirements for repayment established by the primary federal banking supervisors. Following consultation with the primary banking supervisor of each institution, Treasury has notified the institutions that they are now eligible to complete the repayment process. If these firms choose to do so, Treasury will receive $68 billion in repayment proceeds.
Combined with repayments received to date from other institutions, Treasury will have received approximately $70 billion in repayments from CPP participants. More than 600 banks across the country have participated in the CPP, representing $199 billion in investments.
"These repayments are an encouraging sign of financial repair, but we still have work to do," said Secretary Tim Geithner.
These repayments follow a period in which many banks have successfully raised equity capital from private investors. Also, for the first time in many months, these banks have issued long-term debt that is not guaranteed by the government.
Under the CPP investment agreements, firms that repay their preferred stock have the right to repurchase the warrants Treasury holds in their firms at fair market value. In addition to Treasury's potential income from sale of the warrants, these 10 institutions have already paid dividends on the preferred stock totaling approximately $1.8 billion over the last seven months. Dividend payments received for all CPP participants are approximately $4.5 billion to date.
Under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, proceeds from repayment will be applied to Treasury's general account. These repayments help to reduce Treasury's borrowing and national debt. The repayments also increase Treasury's cushion to respond to any future financial instability that might otherwise jeopardize economic recovery.
Source: U.S. Treasury Department
TG-162
Treasury Announces $68 Billion in Expected CPP Repayments
WASHINGTON ・The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced today that 10 of the largest U.S. financial institutions participating in the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) have met the requirements for repayment established by the primary federal banking supervisors. Following consultation with the primary banking supervisor of each institution, Treasury has notified the institutions that they are now eligible to complete the repayment process. If these firms choose to do so, Treasury will receive $68 billion in repayment proceeds.
Combined with repayments received to date from other institutions, Treasury will have received approximately $70 billion in repayments from CPP participants. More than 600 banks across the country have participated in the CPP, representing $199 billion in investments.
"These repayments are an encouraging sign of financial repair, but we still have work to do," said Secretary Tim Geithner.
These repayments follow a period in which many banks have successfully raised equity capital from private investors. Also, for the first time in many months, these banks have issued long-term debt that is not guaranteed by the government.
Under the CPP investment agreements, firms that repay their preferred stock have the right to repurchase the warrants Treasury holds in their firms at fair market value. In addition to Treasury's potential income from sale of the warrants, these 10 institutions have already paid dividends on the preferred stock totaling approximately $1.8 billion over the last seven months. Dividend payments received for all CPP participants are approximately $4.5 billion to date.
Under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, proceeds from repayment will be applied to Treasury's general account. These repayments help to reduce Treasury's borrowing and national debt. The repayments also increase Treasury's cushion to respond to any future financial instability that might otherwise jeopardize economic recovery.
Source: U.S. Treasury Department
Monday, June 8, 2009
Video Update 米国株式市況 6月8日09年
今日は 為替、金利、コモデイテー、原油、金、債券、TARP資金返済、医療保険制度改革、（MCD）マックドナルド,その他。
経済データでは：ＯＥＣＤ景気先行指数
Saturday, June 6, 2009
世の中は進んでいた。。。
僕はテックノロジーに関して疎いほうで、お恥ずかしいほどアナログ・タイプです。ましてSNSなど経験がまったく無いです。しかし、今日WSJのビデオでこのドッグ・フエース・ブックの存在を知った時は、さすがに遅れていると反省しました。I had no idea…
Friday, June 5, 2009
Video Update 米国株式市況、6月5日09年
今日は 債券、金利、金融政策、為替、原油、金、コモデイテー、(JPM)ジエイ・ピー・モルガン、（Ｃ）シテイグループ、(ABX)バリク・ゴールド、(NEM)ニューモント・マイニング、来週の注目点、その他。
経済データでは：失業率、非農業部門雇用者数、家計調査就業者、など。
Video Update 米国株式市況、6月3-4日09年
今日はチャイン・ストアー・セールズ、(SKS）サックス、(JWN）ノードストローム、（DDS）デイラード、(TJX)テイジェイエクス、(ROST）ロス・ストアーズ、(ARO)エアロポスタル、（BKE）バックルズ、（GPS)ギヤップ、（WMT)ウオールマート。
経済データでは：新規失業保険申請件数、失業保険継続受給者数、非農業部門労働生産性
今日は為替、原油、金、コモデイテー、(VLO)ヴァレロ・エネルギー
経済データでは：製造業新規受注、航空機除く非国防資本財、ＩＳＭ非製造業総合指数,、ＡＤＰ民間部門雇用者数,、チャレンジャー・グレイ企業人員削減数
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Video Update 米国株式市況、6月2日09年
今日は(MS)モルガン・スタンレー、(JPM）ジェイ・ピー・モルガン、（AXP）アメリカン・エクスプレス、(STI）サントラスト・バンクス、(GM)ジェネラル・モーターズ、(F）フォード、(７２０３)トヨタ、（７２６７）本田、（７２０１）日産、（７２６１）マツダ、TARP資金返済条件、相次ぐ銀行増資、PPIP延期の可能性,その他。
経済データでは：中古住宅成約指数、五月自動車販売台数。
TARP資金返済条件: 米連銀
Press Release
Release Date: June 1, 2009
For release at 4:00 p.m. EDT
The Federal Reserve Board on Monday outlined the criteria it will use to evaluate applications to redeem U.S. Treasury capital from the 19 bank holding companies (BHC) that participated in the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP).
Redemption approvals for an initial set of these large bank holding companies are expected to be announced during the week of June 8. Applications will be evaluated periodically thereafter. Any banking organization wishing to redeem U.S. Treasury capital must first obtain approval from its primary federal supervisor, which then forwards approved applications to the Treasury Department.
Any BHC seeking to redeem U.S. Treasury capital must demonstrate an ability to access the long-term debt markets without reliance on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP), and must successfully demonstrate access to public equity markets.
In addition, the Federal Reserve's review of a BHC's application to redeem U.S. Treasury capital will include consideration of the following:
Whether a BHC can redeem its Treasury capital and remain in a position to continue to fulfill its role as an intermediary that facilitates lending to creditworthy households and businesses;
Whether, after redeeming its Treasury capital, a BHC will be able to maintain capital levels that are consistent with supervisory expectations;
Whether a BHC will be able to continue to serve as a source of financial and managerial strength and support to its subsidiary bank(s) after the redemption; and
Whether a BHC and its bank subsidiaries will be able to meet its ongoing funding requirements and its obligations to counterparties while reducing reliance on government capital and the TLGP.
Finally, all BHCs must have a robust longer-term capital assessment and management process geared toward achieving and maintaining a prudent level and composition of capital commensurate with the BHC's business activities and firm-wide risk profile.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank
Release Date: June 1, 2009
For release at 4:00 p.m. EDT
The Federal Reserve Board on Monday outlined the criteria it will use to evaluate applications to redeem U.S. Treasury capital from the 19 bank holding companies (BHC) that participated in the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP).
Redemption approvals for an initial set of these large bank holding companies are expected to be announced during the week of June 8. Applications will be evaluated periodically thereafter. Any banking organization wishing to redeem U.S. Treasury capital must first obtain approval from its primary federal supervisor, which then forwards approved applications to the Treasury Department.
Any BHC seeking to redeem U.S. Treasury capital must demonstrate an ability to access the long-term debt markets without reliance on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP), and must successfully demonstrate access to public equity markets.
In addition, the Federal Reserve's review of a BHC's application to redeem U.S. Treasury capital will include consideration of the following:
Whether a BHC can redeem its Treasury capital and remain in a position to continue to fulfill its role as an intermediary that facilitates lending to creditworthy households and businesses;
Whether, after redeeming its Treasury capital, a BHC will be able to maintain capital levels that are consistent with supervisory expectations;
Whether a BHC will be able to continue to serve as a source of financial and managerial strength and support to its subsidiary bank(s) after the redemption; and
Whether a BHC and its bank subsidiaries will be able to meet its ongoing funding requirements and its obligations to counterparties while reducing reliance on government capital and the TLGP.
Finally, all BHCs must have a robust longer-term capital assessment and management process geared toward achieving and maintaining a prudent level and composition of capital commensurate with the BHC's business activities and firm-wide risk profile.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank
バイロン・ウイーンのインタビュー
バイロン・ウイーン、元モルガン・スタンレーの米株チーフ・ストラジストが今日インタビユーされた。ウイーン氏はひきつずき短期的には強気だが来年の経済成長は気がかり。 SP500は１０００、１１００辺りまで戻すと思っている。 ただ、来年に入り、景気刺激策の効果が出きった後、何が経済の原動力になるかはまだ見えてこない。単発的に四半期ベースで +３．００％～４．００％のGDPの伸びも有りうると思うが、継続的にそれを達成するのはむずうかしいのでは。 金利に関しては現在の経済状態を考えれば、４．００％台は適当な水準、など。
Monday, June 1, 2009
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