Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Video Update 米国株式市況 7月1日9年
今日は:（GIS）ジェネラル・ミルズ、(STZ）コンステレイシオン・ブランズ、(KFT)クラフト、(KO)コカ・コーラ、（PG）プロクター・アンド・ギャンベル、その他。
経済データでは：ＡＤＰ民間雇用者、チャレンジャー企業人員削減数、中古住宅販売成約指数、建設支出、ＩＳＭ製造業景気指数。
ＩＳＭ製造業景気指数
ＩＳＭ製造業景気指数。６月は４４．８対予想44.9。５０をまだ下回っていますが、６ヶ月連続で上昇で、去年８月のレベルまで戻して来ました。これで４１．２を二ヶ月上回り、経済全体が拡大し始めている事を示唆しています。生産は５２．５と、１０ヶ月ぶりに拡大。在庫は30.8と引きつずきまだ調整局面ですが、入荷遅延が５０．６と言う事はそれも終りに近いと思われます。しいて言えば新規受注が49.2へ前月の51.1から下がった事が気になりますが。
Source: ISM, Briefing.com
Source: ISM, Briefing.com
ＡＤＰ民間雇用者数、チャレンジャー企業人員削減数
ＡＤＰ民間雇用者数。6月は-473Kと、予想の-394Kを大幅に下回ったが、過去２ヶ月分を上方修正。それなので、四半期ベースで見ると予想範囲内となり、第一四半期平均の-681Kに対し、第二四半期は-492Kと少しずつ改善しているストーリーは変わらず。
チャレンジャー企業人員削減数。６月は -74,393人と、前月比ベースで-33.1％で５ヶ月連続で低下。月間で見ると昨年3月以来の低さ。前年同期比でも-9.0％で、2008年２月以来初めて下がった。
Source: ADP, Challenger Grey Christmas.
チャレンジャー企業人員削減数。６月は -74,393人と、前月比ベースで-33.1％で５ヶ月連続で低下。月間で見ると昨年3月以来の低さ。前年同期比でも-9.0％で、2008年２月以来初めて下がった。
Source: ADP, Challenger Grey Christmas.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Video Update 米国株式市況 6月30日9年
今日は: PPIP, (GLW)コーンイング, その他。
経済データでは：Ｓ＆Ｐ／ケース・シラー住宅価格指数、シカゴ地区購買部協会景気指数、コンファレンス・ボード消費者信頼感指数。
PPIP: 明日正式発表？
今日CNBCのCharlie Gasparinoが遅れていたPPIPを米財務省が水曜日か木曜日に発表すると番組の中で話していました。当初より規模はかなり小さくなっているようで、９社がinvestment manager として選ばれた模様。そのなかには、Wilber Ross, GE Capital/Angelo Gordon Co. などが含まれる。
コンファレンス・ボード消費者信頼感指数
コンファレンス・ボード消費者信頼感指数。６月は49.3と予想の55.1を大きく下回って、４ヶ月ぶりに下がりました。現況指数は24.8対前月29.7、期待指数は65.5対前月71.5。背景は雇用とビジネス環境の悪化。 （注：一番下の期待指数の正しい変化は-6で、+21.3ではないです。）
今日はこれで騒ぎましたが、先週２６日に出たミシガン大学消費者マインド指数６月分は70.8。速報から上昇修正され、４ヶ月連続で改善していましたし、このような指数と実際の消費行動の相関は必ずしも高くないです、特に短期では。
Source: The Conference Board, Market Harmonics.
今日はこれで騒ぎましたが、先週２６日に出たミシガン大学消費者マインド指数６月分は70.8。速報から上昇修正され、４ヶ月連続で改善していましたし、このような指数と実際の消費行動の相関は必ずしも高くないです、特に短期では。
Source: The Conference Board, Market Harmonics.
シカゴ地区購買部協会景気指数
シカゴ地区購買部協会景気指数。6月は39.9と予想の38.5を上回ったが、この地区の製造業は他の地区や全米のデータと比べると戻りがまだ鈍い。やはり自動車産業の影響が大きい。最悪期を抜けたものの、ボックス園内で推移している。
Source: Kingsbury Int'l, Institute for Supply Management Chicago, Briefing.com
Source: Kingsbury Int'l, Institute for Supply Management Chicago, Briefing.com
Ｓ＆Ｐ／ケース・シラー住宅価格指数
Ｓ＆Ｐ／ケース・シラー住宅価格指数。４月は２０都市圏で前年比-18.1％、前月比-0.6％。１０都市圏で前年比-18.０％、前月比-0.７％。S&P社は前年同月比ベースの下に歯止めがかかり始めた可能性があると指摘するものの、判断を下すにはあと何ヶ月かのデータが必要。実際の価格は2003年半ばの水準まで下げ、ピークからー３２．６％。
Source: S&P社
Source: S&P社
Monday, June 29, 2009
Video Update 米国株式市況 6月29日09年
今日マーケットは反発しましたが、本当にニュースが少なく、軽いwindow-dressing の一日としか言えない内容でした。 A very, very quiet day.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Video Update 米国株式市況 6月26日09年
今日は(ACN) アクセンシュアー、 (PALM)パーム、 (RIMM) リサーチ・イン・モーシッヨン(AAPL) アップル、(GS)ゴールドマン・サックス、 (MS)モルガン・スタンレー 、(JPM) ジェイ・ピ・モルガン、(V)ビッザ、その他。
経済データでは：個人所得、個人消費支出、ミシガン大学消費者マインド指数。
チャート： 今日の経済データ。
今日の経済データ。 上から 個人所得、個人消費支出、個人貯蓄率、ミシガン大学消費者マインド指数。
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis, Briefing.com
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis, Briefing.com
Thursday, June 25, 2009
米連銀Exit Strategy の始まり？
きょうの米連銀プレス・リリース。
Source: Federal Reserve Bank.
Press Release
Release Date: June 25, 2009
For release at noon EDT
The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced extensions of and modifications to a number of its liquidity programs. Conditions in financial markets have improved in recent months, but market functioning in many areas remains impaired and seems likely to be strained for some time. As a consequence, to promote financial stability and support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve is extending a number of facilities through early 2010. At the same time, in light of the improvement in financial conditions and reduced usage of some facilities, the Federal Reserve is trimming the size and changing the terms of some facilities.
Specifically, the Board of Governors approved extension through February 1, 2010, of the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF), the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), and the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF). The expiration date for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) currently remains set at December 31, 2009. The Term Auction Facility (TAF) does not have a fixed expiration date.
The extension of the TSLF also required the approval of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as that facility is established under the joint authority of the Board and the FOMC.
In addition, the temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines) between the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been extended to February 1. The Federal Reserve action to extend the swap lines was taken by the FOMC.
The Federal Reserve also announced changes to certain liquidity programs in light of the improvement in financial conditions and the associated reduction in usage of some facilities. Specifically, the Federal Reserve trimmed the size of upcoming TAF auctions, because the amount of credit extended under that facility has been well below the offered amount. In view of very weak demand at TSLF Schedule 1 auctions and TSLF Options Program auctions over recent months, auctions under these programs will be suspended. The frequency of Schedule 2 TSLF auctions will be reduced to one every four weeks and the offered amount will be reduced. The authorization for the Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF) was not extended, and an additional administrative criterion was established for use of the AMLF. If necessary in view of evolving market conditions, the Federal Reserve will increase the size of TAF auctions and resume TSLF operations that have been suspended.
The Board and the FOMC will continue to monitor closely the condition of financial markets and the need for and effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's special liquidity facilities and arrangements. Should the recent improvements in market conditions continue, the Board and the FOMC currently anticipate that a number of these facilities may not need to be extended beyond February 1. However, if financial stresses do not moderate as expected, the Board and the FOMC are prepared to extend the terms of some or all of the facilities as needed to promote financial stability and economic growth. The public will receive timely notice of planned extensions, discontinuations, or modifications of Federal Reserve programs.
TAF and Swap LinesIn recent months, conditions in wholesale funding markets have improved, and partly as a result, usage of the TAF and the dollar facilities provided by foreign central banks has declined notably. For some time, amounts bid at TAF auctions have fallen short of the amounts auctioned. In view of the decreasing need for TAF funding, the Board has reduced the amounts auctioned at the biweekly auctions of TAF funds from $150 billion to $125 billion, effective with the auction to be held on July 13. The Federal Reserve anticipates that, if market conditions continue to improve in coming months, TAF funding will be reduced gradually further.
The extension of the dollar liquidity swap arrangements through February 1 currently applies to the swap lines between the Federal Reserve and each of the following central banks: the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Canada, Danmarks Nationalbank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Norges Bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Sveriges Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank. The extension of the foreign currency swap arrangements currently applies to the swap lines between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. The Bank of Japan will consider extensions of the dollar liquidity swap and the foreign-currency liquidity swap arrangements with the Federal Reserve and will announce its decision following its next Monetary Policy Meeting.
TSLF and PDCFThe Federal Reserve extended the TSLF, with certain modifications, and the PDCF through February 1.
In view of the considerable progress to date in deleveraging by primary dealers and dealers' improved access to funding in the market for repurchase agreements, activity at the TSLF has fallen notably. In response, the Board and the FOMC approved certain modifications to the TSLF. In particular, TSLF auctions backed by Schedule 1 collateral (Treasury, agency debt, and agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities) will be suspended, effective July 1. Also, the Federal Reserve suspended the TSLF Options Program (TOP), effective with maturity of outstanding June TOP options. TSLF auctions backed by Schedule 2 collateral (Schedule 1 collateral and investment-grade corporate, municipal, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities) will now be conducted every four weeks, rather than every two weeks, and the total amount offered under the TSLF will be reduced to $75 billion. The Federal Reserve anticipates that the amounts auctioned under the TSLF will be scaled back further over time as permitted by market conditions. However, the Federal Reserve is prepared to resume Schedule 1 TSLF operations and TOP auctions and to increase the frequency and size of Schedule 2 auctions if warranted by evolving market conditions.
Although the amount outstanding under the PDCF is currently zero, the Board believes it appropriate to continue to provide the PDCF as a backstop liquidity facility for primary dealers in the near term, while financial market conditions remain somewhat fragile.
AMLF, CPFF, and MMIFFThe Board extended the authorizations for the AMLF and the CPFF through February 1, 2010. The authorization for the MMIFF, which expires on October 30, 2009, was not extended.
Usage of the AMLF has declined considerably as market conditions have improved. Nonetheless, in view of the continued fragility in market conditions, the Board judged it appropriate to extend the authorization for the AMLF. To help ensure that the AMLF is used for its intended purpose of providing a temporary liquidity backstop to money market mutual funds (MMMFs), the Federal Reserve established a redemption threshold whereby a MMMF would have to experience material outflows--defined as at least 5 percent of net assets in a single day or at least 10 percent of net assets within the prior five business days--before it can sell asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) that would be eligible collateral for AMLF loans to depository institutions and bank holding companies. Any eligible ABCP purchased from a MMMF that has experienced redemptions at these thresholds could be pledged to AMLF at any time within the five business days following the date that the threshold level of redemptions was reached.
The Board similarly judged that market conditions warranted the extension of the CPFF through February 1 in order to help ensure the access of U.S. businesses to short-term funding. Interest rates posted on the CPFF are at levels that are increasingly unattractive for many borrowers as market conditions improve, and accordingly usage of the CPFF is declining fairly steadily. In these circumstances, the Board judged that modifications to the CPFF were not necessary at this time.
Given the overall improvement in market conditions and the continued availability of the AMLF and the CPFF, the Board believed that it was not necessary to extend the authorization for the MMIFF.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank.
Press Release
Release Date: June 25, 2009
For release at noon EDT
The Federal Reserve on Thursday announced extensions of and modifications to a number of its liquidity programs. Conditions in financial markets have improved in recent months, but market functioning in many areas remains impaired and seems likely to be strained for some time. As a consequence, to promote financial stability and support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve is extending a number of facilities through early 2010. At the same time, in light of the improvement in financial conditions and reduced usage of some facilities, the Federal Reserve is trimming the size and changing the terms of some facilities.
Specifically, the Board of Governors approved extension through February 1, 2010, of the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF), the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), and the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF). The expiration date for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) currently remains set at December 31, 2009. The Term Auction Facility (TAF) does not have a fixed expiration date.
The extension of the TSLF also required the approval of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as that facility is established under the joint authority of the Board and the FOMC.
In addition, the temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines) between the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been extended to February 1. The Federal Reserve action to extend the swap lines was taken by the FOMC.
The Federal Reserve also announced changes to certain liquidity programs in light of the improvement in financial conditions and the associated reduction in usage of some facilities. Specifically, the Federal Reserve trimmed the size of upcoming TAF auctions, because the amount of credit extended under that facility has been well below the offered amount. In view of very weak demand at TSLF Schedule 1 auctions and TSLF Options Program auctions over recent months, auctions under these programs will be suspended. The frequency of Schedule 2 TSLF auctions will be reduced to one every four weeks and the offered amount will be reduced. The authorization for the Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF) was not extended, and an additional administrative criterion was established for use of the AMLF. If necessary in view of evolving market conditions, the Federal Reserve will increase the size of TAF auctions and resume TSLF operations that have been suspended.
The Board and the FOMC will continue to monitor closely the condition of financial markets and the need for and effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's special liquidity facilities and arrangements. Should the recent improvements in market conditions continue, the Board and the FOMC currently anticipate that a number of these facilities may not need to be extended beyond February 1. However, if financial stresses do not moderate as expected, the Board and the FOMC are prepared to extend the terms of some or all of the facilities as needed to promote financial stability and economic growth. The public will receive timely notice of planned extensions, discontinuations, or modifications of Federal Reserve programs.
TAF and Swap LinesIn recent months, conditions in wholesale funding markets have improved, and partly as a result, usage of the TAF and the dollar facilities provided by foreign central banks has declined notably. For some time, amounts bid at TAF auctions have fallen short of the amounts auctioned. In view of the decreasing need for TAF funding, the Board has reduced the amounts auctioned at the biweekly auctions of TAF funds from $150 billion to $125 billion, effective with the auction to be held on July 13. The Federal Reserve anticipates that, if market conditions continue to improve in coming months, TAF funding will be reduced gradually further.
The extension of the dollar liquidity swap arrangements through February 1 currently applies to the swap lines between the Federal Reserve and each of the following central banks: the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Canada, Danmarks Nationalbank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Norges Bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Sveriges Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank. The extension of the foreign currency swap arrangements currently applies to the swap lines between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. The Bank of Japan will consider extensions of the dollar liquidity swap and the foreign-currency liquidity swap arrangements with the Federal Reserve and will announce its decision following its next Monetary Policy Meeting.
TSLF and PDCFThe Federal Reserve extended the TSLF, with certain modifications, and the PDCF through February 1.
In view of the considerable progress to date in deleveraging by primary dealers and dealers' improved access to funding in the market for repurchase agreements, activity at the TSLF has fallen notably. In response, the Board and the FOMC approved certain modifications to the TSLF. In particular, TSLF auctions backed by Schedule 1 collateral (Treasury, agency debt, and agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities) will be suspended, effective July 1. Also, the Federal Reserve suspended the TSLF Options Program (TOP), effective with maturity of outstanding June TOP options. TSLF auctions backed by Schedule 2 collateral (Schedule 1 collateral and investment-grade corporate, municipal, mortgage-backed, and asset-backed securities) will now be conducted every four weeks, rather than every two weeks, and the total amount offered under the TSLF will be reduced to $75 billion. The Federal Reserve anticipates that the amounts auctioned under the TSLF will be scaled back further over time as permitted by market conditions. However, the Federal Reserve is prepared to resume Schedule 1 TSLF operations and TOP auctions and to increase the frequency and size of Schedule 2 auctions if warranted by evolving market conditions.
Although the amount outstanding under the PDCF is currently zero, the Board believes it appropriate to continue to provide the PDCF as a backstop liquidity facility for primary dealers in the near term, while financial market conditions remain somewhat fragile.
AMLF, CPFF, and MMIFFThe Board extended the authorizations for the AMLF and the CPFF through February 1, 2010. The authorization for the MMIFF, which expires on October 30, 2009, was not extended.
Usage of the AMLF has declined considerably as market conditions have improved. Nonetheless, in view of the continued fragility in market conditions, the Board judged it appropriate to extend the authorization for the AMLF. To help ensure that the AMLF is used for its intended purpose of providing a temporary liquidity backstop to money market mutual funds (MMMFs), the Federal Reserve established a redemption threshold whereby a MMMF would have to experience material outflows--defined as at least 5 percent of net assets in a single day or at least 10 percent of net assets within the prior five business days--before it can sell asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) that would be eligible collateral for AMLF loans to depository institutions and bank holding companies. Any eligible ABCP purchased from a MMMF that has experienced redemptions at these thresholds could be pledged to AMLF at any time within the five business days following the date that the threshold level of redemptions was reached.
The Board similarly judged that market conditions warranted the extension of the CPFF through February 1 in order to help ensure the access of U.S. businesses to short-term funding. Interest rates posted on the CPFF are at levels that are increasingly unattractive for many borrowers as market conditions improve, and accordingly usage of the CPFF is declining fairly steadily. In these circumstances, the Board judged that modifications to the CPFF were not necessary at this time.
Given the overall improvement in market conditions and the continued availability of the AMLF and the CPFF, the Board believed that it was not necessary to extend the authorization for the MMIFF.
Video Update 米国株式市況 6月24日09年
今日は（BBBY）ベッド・バス・アンド・ビヨンド、(JCP)ジャイ・シー・ペニーズ、(LEN)レナー、自動車業界、バーナンキ連銀議長、その他。
経済データでは：新規失業保険申請件数、第１四半期ＧＤＰ（確定）
チャート： 今日の経済データ。
今日の経済データ。 上から： 第１四半期ＧＤＰ確定値、新規失業保険申請件数
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Briefing.com
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Briefing.com
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
OECD 経済予想
OECD は今日２年ぶりに経済予想を上方修正しました。OECD全体のGDP: 2009 -4.3% => -4.1%, 2010 -0.1% => +0.7%.; 米国 2009 -4.0% => -2.8%, 2010 0.0% => +0.9%.
Source: OECD
チャート： 今日の経済データ。
今日の経済データ。 上から： 新築住宅販売と前年同期変化率、新築住宅販売と前年同期変化率。
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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